Onion Market Update December 11, 2023
By John Harris
It has been a month since my last update. Here was my summary on the update of Nov 13th.
So, where does this leave the 2023 onion crop? All signs point towards a strong onion market for later winter and spring of 2024. I wouldn’t be surprised as we get into late February-April if we see a $14-$15 yellow onion market. That’s nearly double what it is right now.
Meanwhile, the white market has been a bit unstable and weaker than it had been in the first six to eight weeks of the storage crop season. However, it is showing some signs again this week of strengthening again. The red market has stayed steady. I expect an upward trend in this market moving into the holidays and 2024. I think the red market has probably the most upside out of all three colors as we get into 2024.
Based on the above statement, let’s recap where we are a month later…
After returning from a fantastic National Onion Association (NOA) winter meeting in San Antonio last Monday, the market had some serious momentum behind it. Hurricane Hilary destroyed large portions of a crop that would be feeding the domestic demand right now and there is a serious buying push out of Mexico to cover supplies that were damaged. That added with Holiday demand that is starting this week, and we have the perfect storm to see high demand and strong prices for at least the next month or so.
The yellow and white markets have nearly doubled in the last 10-12 days. The upward trend is almost a certainty. The white market is in the mid 20’s today and I fully expect to see it hit $30+ by this time next week. Red prices have also crept up, but not quite to the feverish extent of yellows and whites. Don’t be fooled though, as this crop is short and has plenty of opportunity to become just as hot as the yellow and white markets are right now.
Mexico has a crop coming. It was in question with water concerns a couple months back, but it is in the ground and will start coming across in late January. Most of the early onions to cross will end up in sweet onion programs and could take a little pressure off of the current tight supply situation, but I wouldn’t expect the pressure valve to be released until sometime in February. Late January and early February are always a little lighter on demand so even without any help from Mexico, I do expect there will be relief on the way in terms of being able to get things on the books and shipped a little easier. In terms of the market, the supplies on hand are in a very manageable position and as long as Mexico doesn’t apply too much pressure on the domestic market, we are in a good position to see a good market on all sizes and colors until Southern California gets started in late April.
I’ll update again in a couple weeks before Christmas. Plan ahead and expect most orders to be priced a day or two before they ship for the next couple weeks, at least. If you aren’t planning a minimum of 5 days in advance of orders right now, you are not going to get covered.
Have a great week. All comments and insights are welcomed and appreciated.
Editors Note: John Harris is the president and founder of Paradigm Fresh and Colorado Cold Connect in Fort Morgan, Colorado. He can be reached at John@paradigmfresh.com.
